Backend: ibm_fez | Used qubits: 128
Scenario 4 — Direct Gulf military involvement and coalition intervention
Corridor protection may improve locally, but broad confrontation probability increases.
Final QPC score: -0.375155 (100.00/100)
| Rank | Short name | Scenario | Qubits | Score | Norm | Coherence | Contradiction | Redundancy | Exec conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | S4_gulf_direct_intervention | Scenario 4 — Direct Gulf military involvement and coalition intervention | 21 | -0.375155 | 100.00 | -0.042643 | 0.495768 | -0.339844 | 0.033203 |
| 2 | S1_multitheater_spread | Scenario 1 — Multi-theater escalation across the Middle East | 33 | -0.406179 | 64.10 | -0.049479 | 0.542643 | -0.207031 | 0.002734 |
| 3 | S3_crossborder_infra_destruction | Scenario 3 — Cross-border destruction of fields, pipelines, and export terminals | 42 | -0.420753 | 47.24 | -0.094401 | 0.502279 | -0.554688 | -0.005469 |
| 4 | S2_iran_transition_shock | Scenario 2 — Iran political transition and command fragmentation | 32 | -0.461585 | 0.00 | -0.175456 | 0.461914 | -0.708984 | -0.008984 |
| 1 | S4_gulf_direct_intervention | Scenario 4 — Direct Gulf military involvement and coalition intervention | 21 | -0.364893 | 100.00 | -0.042643 | 0.495768 | -0.339844 | 0.033203 |
| 2 | S1_multitheater_spread | Scenario 1 — Multi-theater escalation across the Middle East | 33 | -0.402197 | 66.33 | -0.049479 | 0.542643 | -0.207031 | 0.002734 |
| 3 | S3_crossborder_infra_destruction | Scenario 3 — Cross-border destruction of fields, pipelines, and export terminals | 42 | -0.420882 | 49.47 | -0.094401 | 0.502279 | -0.554688 | -0.005469 |
| 4 | S2_iran_transition_shock | Scenario 2 — Iran political transition and command fragmentation | 32 | -0.475700 | 0.00 | -0.175456 | 0.461914 | -0.708984 | -0.008984 |
| 1 | S4_gulf_direct_intervention | Scenario 4 — Direct Gulf military involvement and coalition intervention | 21 | -0.364893 | 100.00 | -0.042643 | 0.495768 | -0.339844 | 0.033203 |
| 2 | S1_multitheater_spread | Scenario 1 — Multi-theater escalation across the Middle East | 33 | -0.402197 | 66.33 | -0.049479 | 0.542643 | -0.207031 | 0.002734 |
| 3 | S3_crossborder_infra_destruction | Scenario 3 — Cross-border destruction of fields, pipelines, and export terminals | 42 | -0.420882 | 49.47 | -0.094401 | 0.502279 | -0.554688 | -0.005469 |
| 4 | S2_iran_transition_shock | Scenario 2 — Iran political transition and command fragmentation | 32 | -0.475700 | 0.00 | -0.175456 | 0.461914 | -0.708984 | -0.008984 |
| 1 | S4_gulf_direct_intervention | Scenario 4 — Direct Gulf military involvement and coalition intervention | 21 | -0.364893 | 100.00 | -0.042643 | 0.495768 | -0.339844 | 0.033203 |
| 2 | S1_multitheater_spread | Scenario 1 — Multi-theater escalation across the Middle East | 33 | -0.402197 | 66.33 | -0.049479 | 0.542643 | -0.207031 | 0.002734 |
| 3 | S3_crossborder_infra_destruction | Scenario 3 — Cross-border destruction of fields, pipelines, and export terminals | 42 | -0.420882 | 49.47 | -0.094401 | 0.502279 | -0.554688 | -0.005469 |
| 4 | S2_iran_transition_shock | Scenario 2 — Iran political transition and command fragmentation | 32 | -0.475700 | 0.00 | -0.175456 | 0.461914 | -0.708984 | -0.008984 |
Customer message: Corridor protection may improve locally, but broad confrontation probability increases.
Gulf states move from indirect posture to direct military involvement; coalition actions reshape escalation ladders and corridor security.
Assigned qubits: 21
Final QPC score: -0.375155 (100.00/100)
Resilience: -0.176383 | Execution confidence: 0.033203
Customer message: System stress comes from simultaneous logistics, political, and security shocks.
Conflict expands into Iraq-Syria-Lebanon-Red Sea-Gulf theaters with repeated strikes and shipping insecurity.
Assigned qubits: 33
Final QPC score: -0.406179 (64.10/100)
Resilience: -0.120378 | Execution confidence: 0.002734
Customer message: Throughput collapse risk dominates: reopening routes alone may not restore export capacity.
Attacks spill into neighboring producers and transit states; fields, compressor stations, pipelines, and ports are repeatedly damaged.
Assigned qubits: 42
Final QPC score: -0.420753 (47.24/100)
Resilience: -0.301530 | Execution confidence: -0.005469
Customer message: Strategic unpredictability is central: assumptions can fail overnight.
Regime instability or governmental transition in Iran creates doctrine fragmentation and abrupt export policy shifts.
Assigned qubits: 32
Final QPC score: -0.461585 (0.00/100)
Resilience: -0.415544 | Execution confidence: -0.008984